Shopify Deep Dive, Part 2: The $2.5 Billion Side Quest
On May 4, 2023, Tobi Lütke called four years and $2.5 billion of logistics spending a side quest and gave most of it away for Flexport stock. Part 2 covers…
Shopify Deep Dive Part 1: The Falling Margin That Fooled Everyone
This is the first of a three-part deep dive on Shopify (Nasdaq/TSX: SHOP). Part 1 covers the business model and how Shopify actually makes money. Part 2 covers the $2…
ServiceNow Deep Dive, Part 2: AI, Financials, and What I’m Doing
Part 1 covered what ServiceNow does and why customers don’t leave. Part 2 tackles the harder question: does AI strengthen the moat or erode it? I walk through the AI…
ServiceNow Deep Dive, Part 1: Understanding the Business
ServiceNow has been cut in half. But this is a company growing revenue at 22% annually with a 98% renewal rate and accelerating customer expansion. Part 1 dissects what ServiceNow…
MercadoLibre: Can Shopee Break It? (Part 3)
Shopee is grabbing market share in Brazil. Amazon is expanding fulfillment. MELI responded by cutting free shipping thresholds. Part 3 examines the competitive threats, the reinvestment decision, and what the…
MercadoLibre Part 2: The Flywheel
In 2009, Marcos Galperin moved his desk next to the CTO’s office. What followed was a decade of bets that transformed a marketplace into an ecosystem—and a 2018 crisis into…
MercadoLibre Part 1: How They Survived When 80+ Competitors Failed
MercadoLibre raised $7.6 million in October 1999. By March 2000, they had negative runway. This is the story of how they outlasted 80 competitors and built the foundation for a…
Booking’s $9 Billion Float: The Hidden Cash Engine
CEO Glenn Fogel says Booking has no moat. The numbers say otherwise: $9 billion in customer float, 65% direct traffic, and 22% of shares bought back since 2022. Here’s what…
Booking Holdings: The Travel Stock That Thrived When Travel Collapsed
A deep dive into Booking Holdings’ pandemic playbook: How Glenn Fogel’s contrarian strategy, merchant model transformation, and Connected Trip vision created one of the market’s best recovery stories. Complete with…
The Trade Desk: From Unstoppable to Uncertain
A 60% stock plunge in just 10 weeks. The first missed guidance in 33 consecutive quarters. A UI redesign that customers actively dislike. What happened to The Trade Desk’s seemingly…
The Trade Desk: Navigating Advertising’s New Complexity
Our lives today are increasingly better, but also getting increasingly complex. In the 1990s, advertising was simple. Television with a handful of major networks, radio, print, and billboards dominated the…
Trip.com Group Deep-Dive
I’m a fan of platform businesses primarily because it often leads to a monopolistic or oligopolistic market position. The largest player, with the most merchants and traffic, offers the most…