Paycom Q4 2025: Jeff York Returns
In my December 2025 report, “When Product Excellence Meets Market Reality,” (LINK) I posed the question that’s been nagging at this thesis for a while: “Can Paycom translate its alleged…
Alphabet Q4 2025: When AI Becomes the Growth Engine
I’ve been writing about Google’s AI transition for over three years now. In March 2025, with AI pessimism peaking, I argued it was “premature to cancel Google Search” (LINK). By…
Portfolio Update: Exiting a Position
I’m selling my entire position in PayPal. This isn’t a decision I make lightly. A significant part of my thesis hinged on Alex Chriss turning around the company—specifically his strategy…
Microsoft Q2 FY26 Earnings: Strong Results, OpenAI Concentration Risk
Microsoft beat on revenue, operating income, and EPS. But shares dropped 10% post-earnings. The concern? 45% of the $625B backlog is tied to one customer: OpenAI.
Meta Q4 2025: Strong Results, AI Investments Paying Off
Revenue grew 24%. Ad clicks up 3.5%. Engineering productivity up 30%. The evidence is clear: Meta’s AI investments are generating returns. Here’s why I’d be more concerned if they weren’t…
Netflix: From Builder to Buyer
For years, Netflix insisted they were builders, not buyers. Then they wrote an $83 billion check for Warner Bros.
MercadoLibre: Can Shopee Break It? (Part 3)
Shopee is grabbing market share in Brazil. Amazon is expanding fulfillment. MELI responded by cutting free shipping thresholds. Part 3 examines the competitive threats, the reinvestment decision, and what the…
MercadoLibre Part 2: The Flywheel
In 2009, Marcos Galperin moved his desk next to the CTO’s office. What followed was a decade of bets that transformed a marketplace into an ecosystem—and a 2018 crisis into…
Lululemon: Waiting for the New Sheriff
Calvin McDonald is out mid-turnaround. Elliott just took a $1B stake. China grew 46% while the U.S. declined 3%. The brand isn’t broken—but the next CEO hire changes everything.
MercadoLibre Part 1: How They Survived When 80+ Competitors Failed
MercadoLibre raised $7.6 million in October 1999. By March 2000, they had negative runway. This is the story of how they outlasted 80 competitors and built the foundation for a…
Paycom Q3 2025: When Product Excellence Meets Market Reality
Paycom delivered Q3 results that met guidance but failed to inspire. Despite management’s evangelizing about IWant AI and Beti’s game-changing capabilities, revenue growth of 10.6% continues to lag competitor Paylocity’s…
The $100k Stock Market Shopping List (November 2025 Edition)
Google went from $143 to $300 in months after appearing in my April shopping list. The narrative shifted from ‘Search is dead’ to ‘full-stack AI solution.’ Same company, different story….