Netflix Q3 2026: Churn Improved. So Why Swap the Content Chief?
Revenue up 12%, margins at 34.6%, a record $4.8 billion buyback. And Netflix still swapped its chief content officer five days before earnings. Why, and what would change my mind…
Booking Holdings: Death by Agent, Round Two
The market has once again decided that OTAs will get slaughtered by AI agents, this time by Meta’s Muse. So I ran a premortem on Booking Holdings: it’s 2029, room…
Netflix’s Growth Is Slowing, Should We Be Worried?
Netflix hasn’t reported horrendous numbers, and it isn’t the kind of business AI is about to upend. But with the company reporting less data and a bit of negativity floating…
Musing About Meta’s New Front Door
Zuck kept Meta’s compute instead of renting it out, and a free AI agent came out of it. Twelve days after launch, Amazon blocked it. On who owns the front…
Shopify Deep Dive, Part 2: The $2.5 Billion Side Quest
On May 4, 2023, Tobi Lütke called four years and $2.5 billion of logistics spending a side quest and gave most of it away for Flexport stock. Part 2 covers…
Domino’s Is Down 24% This Year. I’m Still Watching My Carbs.
Two years ago I said I’d look at Domino’s again at 20x forward earnings. It’s at 16x now, down 24% this year, and the growth engine has been swapped for…
Microsoft Q4 2026: Nadella’s Plan to Make Every Model Swappable
The 10-K finally puts a number on OpenAI: $24.1B of FY2026 revenue. The bigger story is Nadella’s plan to make every model substitutable, and $329.1B of datacenter leases that haven’t…
Mastercard Q2 2026: Buy It and Go to the Beach?
An old saying goes, buy Mastercard and go to the beach. I checked the Q2 2026 filings to see if it still holds. Banks are taking a bigger cut of…
Starbucks: The Turnaround Is Working, But Would I Buy It?
Previous management bet on machines over people and raised prices into an inflation squeeze. Brian Niccol reversed all of it. Two years in, here’s how the turnaround is going, and…
Sea Limited Q2 2026: From Promise to Proof
In Q1 I set a test to separate a real margin inflection from a Ramadan calendar boost. Shopee cleared it cleanly. Here’s my read on the quarter across Shopee, Monee…
Airbnb Grew Twice as Fast as Booking, What Happened?
Booking Holdings is up roughly 24% since I published “Why the AI Bear Case Has It Backwards” in February, as the market starts to shrug off the AI fears for…
Amazon Q2 2026: The Half a Trillion Dollar AWS Backlog
Amazon reported $62.6 billion of net income and 20% revenue growth. Neither number is quite what it looks like. The real story is the $496 billion of AWS revenue already…