Portfolio Update: Exiting a Position
I’m selling my entire position in PayPal. This isn’t a decision I make lightly. A significant part of my thesis hinged on Alex Chriss turning around the company—specifically his strategy…
Microsoft Q2 FY26 Earnings: Strong Results, OpenAI Concentration Risk
Microsoft beat on revenue, operating income, and EPS. But shares dropped 10% post-earnings. The concern? 45% of the $625B backlog is tied to one customer: OpenAI.
Meta Q4 2025: Strong Results, AI Investments Paying Off
Revenue grew 24%. Ad clicks up 3.5%. Engineering productivity up 30%. The evidence is clear: Meta’s AI investments are generating returns. Here’s why I’d be more concerned if they weren’t…
Netflix: From Builder to Buyer
For years, Netflix insisted they were builders, not buyers. Then they wrote an $83 billion check for Warner Bros.
MercadoLibre: Can Shopee Break It? (Part 3)
Shopee is grabbing market share in Brazil. Amazon is expanding fulfillment. MELI responded by cutting free shipping thresholds. Part 3 examines the competitive threats, the reinvestment decision, and what the…
MercadoLibre Part 2: The Flywheel
In 2009, Marcos Galperin moved his desk next to the CTO’s office. What followed was a decade of bets that transformed a marketplace into an ecosystem—and a 2018 crisis into…
Lululemon: Waiting for the New Sheriff
Calvin McDonald is out mid-turnaround. Elliott just took a $1B stake. China grew 46% while the U.S. declined 3%. The brand isn’t broken—but the next CEO hire changes everything.
MercadoLibre Part 1: How They Survived When 80+ Competitors Failed
MercadoLibre raised $7.6 million in October 1999. By March 2000, they had negative runway. This is the story of how they outlasted 80 competitors and built the foundation for a…
Paycom Q3 2025: When Product Excellence Meets Market Reality
Paycom delivered Q3 results that met guidance but failed to inspire. Despite management’s evangelizing about IWant AI and Beti’s game-changing capabilities, revenue growth of 10.6% continues to lag competitor Paylocity’s…
The $100k Stock Market Shopping List (November 2025 Edition)
Google went from $143 to $300 in months after appearing in my April shopping list. The narrative shifted from ‘Search is dead’ to ‘full-stack AI solution.’ Same company, different story….
Why ChatGPT Needs Ads, Not Affiliates—And Meta’s AI Risk
Eric Seufert explains why ChatGPT’s affiliate link strategy is wrong and personalized ads are essential. Plus: Meta’s first real bear case in years despite 26% ad growth. Google’s already winning…
My Investments Professor Lost His Retirement on ‘Safe’ Bonds—Here’s What He Taught Me
Last March, I was sitting in an air-conditioned food court in town, waiting for my old investments lecturer. When he walked in—same pressed shirt, same office handbag, same everything from…