How Incentives Shape Your Broccoli (And Your Portfolio)
A baby, a mini-tree, and a Charlie Munger lesson hiding in the produce aisle.
Netflix Q1 2026: Discipline Tested, Discipline Held
So this is the quarter Netflix reached into Warner Bros’ cookie jar and pulled out $2.8 billion in termination fees, after Ellison junior decided he wanted it more. Smart move,…
ServiceNow Deep Dive, Part 2: AI, Financials, and What I’m Doing
Part 1 covered what ServiceNow does and why customers don’t leave. Part 2 tackles the harder question: does AI strengthen the moat or erode it? I walk through the AI…
The Market Doesn’t Care About Your Forecast
If I told you there are two active wars running right now and oil spiked above $100 a barrel, what would you guess the market has done? Most people would…
ServiceNow Deep Dive, Part 1: Understanding the Business
ServiceNow has been cut in half. But this is a company growing revenue at 22% annually with a 98% renewal rate and accelerating customer expansion. Part 1 dissects what ServiceNow…
Lululemon: Full Price or Bust (Q4 FY2025 Update)
We went from aspiring to return to double-digit growth… to merely trying to sell product at full price. Q4 beat expectations, but the beat was mechanical. North America is still…
Sea Limited Q4 2025 – Closing the Books on 2025
Sea closed 2025 with $22.9 billion in full-year revenue, up 36.4% year-on-year. Full-year net income reached $1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA hit $3.4 billion. All three businesses exceeded the growth…
Trade Desk Q4 2025: The Excuses Doesn’t Quite Add Up
Trade Desk reported Q4 2025 revenue growth of 14%, guided Q1 2026 to just 10%, and lost another CFO in five months. Jeff Green blamed CPG and auto weakness, but…
Where I’m Deploying Capital Right Now
We are in a weird moment in the stock market. The S&P 500 is just 1% away from its all-time highs. But pockets of quality businesses are getting absolutely decimated,…
Buy MELI, I Am
MercadoLibre dropped 9% after Q4 2025 earnings on margin compression. But I’ve seen this playbook before. Revenue accelerated to 45%. Items sold hit the highest growth of the year. The…
Booking Holdings: Why the AI Bear Case Has It Backwards
Google tried to own the full travel transaction with Book on Google. TripAdvisor tried with Instant Booking. Both failed and went back to collecting advertising dollars. Now investors worry…
Portfolio Update: Exiting Tesla
This isn’t a “Tesla will fail” call. Tesla remains one of the most technologically ambitious companies on the planet. But at its current valuation of roughly $1.3 trillion, the stock…