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PayPal Q3 2025: The Transformation Playbook is Working

Thomas Chua by Thomas Chua
14 November 2025
in Investing
14 min read

Insider Stocks · For members

An entry from my investing journal, for members.

After releasing Q3 earnings and announcing a ChatGPT partnership, PayPal's stock jumped 15%—then erased all gains in two days. The company delivered exactly what management promised: Braintree's return to profitable growth, Venmo accelerating to 20% revenue growth, and transaction margin dollars up 7%. Yet Wall Street remains skeptical, waiting for double-digit topline growth while ignoring the deliberate shift from low-quality revenue to high-quality profits. At 12x forward PE, the market is pricing in permanent skepticism. The fundamentals tell a different story.

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Before I buy a business, and before I sell one, I write up what I see: what it earns, what it’s worth, what could break it. Members read every entry, back to 2021. At least two new entries a month, more during earnings season.

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More on PayPal

  • For membersPortfolio Update: Exiting a Position3 February 2026
  • What PayPal CEO Revealed at Citi’s Conference That Spooked the Markets21 November 2025
  • For members[1 Aug 25] Portfolio Update: Adding to Continued Execution, Nibbling on Value1 August 2025

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