If you've followed my writing on Microsoft, you'll know I keep circling the same tension: a wonderful business that I can never quite buy at the price I want. I trimmed half my position back in October 2024 at a forward P/E of 33x, watched it climb for the better part of a year, and have been sitting on my hands waiting for Mr. Market to offer a better entry. The multiple has finally come back to earth. But with it has come a more interesting question than valuation alone. The biggest swing factor in the Microsoft story today isn't Azure's growth rate, and it isn't Copilot seat counts. It's a ...
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