Last Wednesday evening, I was stretching on my living room yoga mat, my hip screaming as I pushed deeper into the pose.
I should have stopped. But I couldn’t look away.
On the screen, a cheetah was stalking a gazelle through tall grass, and I found myself holding the stretch longer, mesmerized. My body frozen in tension—part from the stretch, part from watching this life-or-death chess match.
Then the gazelle’s head shot up. The cheetah immediately stopped. No hesitation. Just turned and walked away.
As I eased out of the stretch and settled onto the mat, I realized something: successful investors act like that cheetah, but most people? They do the exact opposite.
Here’s what fascinates me about predators: they never chase a losing cause. The moment their cover is blown—the second the distance starts widening—they quit. No ego. No “sunk cost” thinking. No “but I’ve already come this far.”
They just walk away.
But when you look at the markets, you see the opposite everywhere.
Remember Teledoc at $200? Peloton at $150? Zoom at $500?
How many investors are still holding these, down 80-90%, doubling down with each drop? They’re drowning in confirmation bias, desperately searching for any scrap of news that suggests a turnaround while ignoring the parade of red flags.
“The fundamentals haven’t changed!” they insist.
“It’s just temporary market sentiment!”
“The technology is still revolutionary!”
Meanwhile, the prey keeps getting further and further away.
Warren Buffett explained this to investors using Keynes’ brilliant line: “When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?”
But here’s what most people do: They ignore the red flags instead of changing their position.
You see this beyond investing too.
Ron Johnson, the genius behind Apple’s retail stores, was hired to transform J.C. Penney in 2011. He eliminated coupons, introduced new brands, completely reimagined the stores—all without testing with actual customers.
Sales plummeted. Customers fled. The evidence was screaming at him to pivot.
His response? Double down. Push harder. Stay the course.
Fired after 17 months.
Johnson’s not stupid. He’s brilliant. But even brilliant people convince themselves that walking away means failure.
The thing about us humans is that our prefrontal cortex—the part that makes us “smarter” than animals—actually makes us worse at knowing when to quit. We tell ourselves stories. We rationalize. We create elaborate justifications for why this time is different.
But the cheetah? It just knows: energy spent on a failed hunt is energy that can’t be used on the next opportunity.
This isn’t about giving up easily. It’s about recognizing when persistence becomes stupidity. When determination becomes delusion.
The sunk cost fallacy tricks you into thinking backward—valuing what you’ve already invested over what you could gain elsewhere. But successful investors, like predators, always look forward.
They ask: “From this moment, right now, is this my best opportunity?”
If the answer is no, they walk away. No drama. No hesitation.
Like nature’s hunters, the smartest investors know exactly when to abandon the hunt. They don’t chase dead ends. They stalk fresh opportunities.
The world is mightily abundant—but only for those who stop chasing what’s already gone.
What’s the one investment or project you’re chasing that keeps getting further away?
Drop it in the comments below. Sometimes developing the awareness is the first step to a better hunt.
To better hunts,
Thomas
P.S. That cheetah? It had a successful hunt after switching targets. Different gazelle, fresh energy. There’s always another opportunity when you stop wasting energy on the impossible ones.